Evaluating the East Asian summer precipitation from the perspective of dominant intermodel spread modes and its implication for future projection

Abstract

AbstractIn this study, a new skill score (SS) is proposed to evaluate the performance of climatological East Asian summer precipitation (EASP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the historical period. By applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to the EASP bias of CMIP6 models, the intermodel spread of EASP bias is revealed to be dominated by the first two modes: the uniform precipitation bias pattern and the north–south dipole precipitation bias pattern. Then the SS is constructed by the weighted‐average model‐observation distances regarding different EOF modes, where the model‐observation distance in a certain EOF mode is defined as the difference between their principal components, and the weight is the corresponding percentage variance. The perfect‐models ensemble based on the SS shows a spatial magnitude close to the observation, indicating that the SS effectively depicts the models' historical performance. However, no robust relationship is found between the model's historical performance and future projection regarding the EASP. This is because they are governed by different physical factors. The historical EASM is determined by the thermal responses to a specific radiative forcing, while the future change in EASP is associated with the warming rate along with the increased radiative forcing.