Aerosol impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon: Insights from TaiESM1 and CMIP6 simulations

Abstract

AbstractThe East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is an important climate pattern in Southeast Asia. This study delved into the aerosol effects on the EAWM by analysing simulations conducted with the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 (TaiESM1) model, part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our assessment, validated against observational and reanalysis data, revealed that TaiESM1 effectively replicates the robust circulation of the EAWM and aerosol concentrations, placing its performance above average level among CMIP6 models. Notably, the simulated global mean aerosol optical thickness exhibited an approximately 20% increase from 1850 to 2014. The increased aerosols corresponded to a weakened Aleutian Low and an intensified Siberian High, leading to a weakened EAWM in the lower atmosphere over extratropical areas. In addition, the cooling across the Northern Hemisphere might affect enhanced northerly winds at approximately 10°N, which are situated in the southern part of the EAWM. An analysis of the near‐surface temperature budget indicated that the aerosol‐induced cooling in East China and India was primarily driven by changes in shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes, albeit slightly offset by sensible heat and latent heat fluxes. Furthermore, our study also reveals that while the mechanisms through which anthropogenic aerosols affect the northern portion of the EAWM vary across most CMIP6 models, their impacts on the tropical region remain consistent.