Impacts of climate change on winter wheat net primary production: the regulatory role of crop management

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDThe Huang–Huai–Hai Plain (3HP) is the main agricultural area in China. Although climate change (CC) and crop management (CM) are considered factors affecting the winter wheat net primary production (NPP) in this region, their effects remain unclear. In the present study, we evaluated the relative contributions of CC and CM to winter wheat aboveground NPP (ANPP) in the 3HP and the relationships between climatic factors and ANPP using the first‐order difference method from 2000 to 2020.RESULTSCM had a greater influence on the ANPP of winter wheat than did CC. However, the relative contribution of CM to ANPP gradually decreased in humid and dry sub‐humid regions with the development of winter wheat. Furthermore, in areas characterized by low temperatures and limited precipitation, CC became the dominant factor contributing to ANPP, indicating that varieties resilient to drought and cold should be selected in these regions. Minimum and average temperatures were the dominant factors driving spatiotemporal variations in ANPP during the early stage of winter wheat growth, whereas maximum temperature constrained growth throughout the winter wheat growth cycle. When winter wheat entered the vigorous growth stage, precipitation and solar radiation replaced temperature as the driving factors influencing winter wheat growth.CONCLUSIONThe results of the present study provide guidance for optimizing winter wheat crop management in the 3HP. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.