Climate risks to soy‐maize double‐cropping due to Amazon deforestation

Abstract

AbstractDeforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (BA) for cattle and soybean production has significant consequences for the various aspects of the climate system. Land surface modifications due to deforestation directly influence surface energy and moisture availability, hence impacting rainfall patterns, air temperature and the onset of the agricultural rainy season. Here, we assess the forest loss‐related climate risks for the first and second crop seasons of the soy‐maize double cropping system in the BA. We utilized long‐term, daily, remote sensed climate data and annual land‐use maps as input for a machine learning algorithm to isolate the signal of forest loss on the climate. Our findings indicate that forest loss in the BA intensifies the risks of climate change from the local to the regional geographical scale, with the impact being more pronounced at the regional scale. Between 1999 and 2019, largely deforested regions exhibited a delay of approximately 76 days in the onset of the agricultural rainy season. These regions also experienced a 360 mm decrease in rainfall and an increase in maximum air temperature of 2.5°C. In view of these results, there are collective advantages of halting deforestation. Conservation of the Amazon Forest is vital for maintaining the early onset of the agricultural rainy season, favourable temperatures and adequate rainfall volume needed for attaining high yields in the soy‐maize double cropping system.