Diagnosing the relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and United States severe convective weather outbreaks

Abstract

AbstractThe Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading intraseasonal mode of tropical variability and has been connected to influences in extratropical weather. Recently, the MJO has been gaining traction as a useful teleconnection for extending severe weather outbreak forecast lead time. However, the MJO's intraseasonal, planetary‐scale is far from the meso‐ or micro‐scale severe weather phenomena, making identifying links between the two more difficult. In our study, we use severe weather outbreaks comprising all three main hazards (wind, hail and tornadoes), which are typically linked to a synoptic‐scale system. Outbreaks are devised using kernel density estimation and were used to determine spatial shifts for each of the eight phases of the MJO in each month. A total of 15 months/phases indicated a significant spatial shift. In the spring and summer months (March–August), southerly shifts are more likely to occur in MJO phases 7–8 and 1–3, while northerly shifts are more likely in phases 4–6. In the cool season (September–February), only 3 month/phase groups indicated significant shifts, two shifting west and one north. Composite analysis showed the likely link between the MJO and these outbreak shifts was rooted in Rossby wave breaking and generation of a Rossby wave source induced by the barotropic vorticity advection from the MJO convection. These resulting wave breaks and wave trains led to changes in the storm track (amplitude and location) that resulted in a more favourable synoptic‐scale pattern for severe weather over the United States that deviated from the climatologically favourable region.