Simulating the effects of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize production at finer scale in northeast China under future climate

Abstract

AbstractBACKGROUNDGlobal warming and the rising occurrences of climate extremes have become formidable challenges for maize production in northeast China. The optimization of sowing date and variety choice stand out as two economic approaches for maize to enhance its resilience to climate change. Nevertheless, assessment of the potential of optimizing sowing date and variety shift on maize yield at finer scale remains underexamined. This study investigated the implications of optimizing sowing date and implementing variety shift on maize yield from a regional perspective.RESULTSCompared to the reference period (1986–2005), climate change would decrease by 11.5–34.6% (the range describes the differences among climate scenarios and agro‐ecological regions) maize yield in the 2050s (2040–2059) if no adaption measure were to be implemented. The combined adaption (optimizing sowing date and variety shift) can improve maize yield by 38.8 ± 11.3%, 42.7 ± 9.7% and 33.9 ± 7.6% under the SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. The current sowing window typically falls within the projected optimal sowing window, defined as the period capable of achieving 90% of the maximum yield within the potential sowing window under future climate conditions. Consequently, the potential of the effect of optimizing sowing window on maize yield is limited. In contrast, variety shift results in higher yield improvement, as temperature rise creates favorable conditions for transplanting varieties with an extended growth period, particularly in high latitudes and mountainous regions. Under future climate, cumulative precipitation and compound drought and hot days during maize growing seasons are two key factors influencing maize production.CONCLUSIONSThe optimization of sowing date and variety choice can improve maize yield in northeast China. In addition, maize production should consider varieties with longer growth period and drought and heat tolerance to adapt to climate change. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.