A new approach for seasonal prediction using the coupled model CFSv2 with special emphasis on Indian Summer Monsoon

Author:

Fousiya T. S.1,Gnanaseelan Chellappan1ORCID,Halder Subrota12ORCID,Kakatkar Rashmi1,Chowdary Jasti S.1ORCID,Darshana Patekar12,Parekh Anant1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences Pune India

2. Department of Atmospheric and Space Sciences Savitribai Phule Pune University Pune India

Abstract

AbstractPredicting Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a challenging task due to its complexity and nonlinear interactions. Any improvement in the seasonal prediction skill of models would highly benefit a large population and the economy. In this context, three sets of hindcast experiments are carried out for 9 months each, for the period 1993–2019, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP‐CFSv2). The experiments differ from each other in the way they are initialized: one is initialized in February (FebIC), and the second in May (MayIC), whereas in the third one (Exp), ocean is initialized in February and allowed to evolve but the atmosphere reinitialized every month up to May. So, hindcasts of Exp are from the pre‐evolved ocean with realistic atmospheric initial conditions of May. The representation of mean tropical Indo‐Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST), Walker circulation, mean monsoon circulation and moisture transport to Indian landmass are better represented in Exp. The ISM rainfall prediction (interannual) skill improved in Exp as compared to FebIC and MayIC over central India, Indian land mass and extended monsoon region. The initialization strategy adopted in Exp reduces the model initial shocks especially in the upper ocean heat content and SST over the Indo‐Pacific region, thereby offering a cost‐effective alternative approach for reduction of the initial shock. The well‐known cold tongue SST bias over the equatorial Pacific in MayIC is reduced significantly in Exp with improved monsoon teleconnections and the overdependence of ISM rainfall on El Niño Southern Oscillation in MayIC is also reduced in Exp.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Reference59 articles.

1. The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)

2. Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill

3. Behringer D.W.&Xue Y.(2004)Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: the Pacific Ocean.Eighth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere Oceans and Land Surface AMS 84th Annual Meeting Washington State Convention and Trade Center Seattle Washington pp. 11–15.

4. Data Assimilation Using Incremental Analysis Updates

5. Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3