Performance reliability degradation analysis and lifetime prediction based on generalized normal grey cloud Bayesian Wiener process

Abstract

AbstractThis study addresses the problem of performance reliability degradation and lifetime prediction in complex systems with high reliability but insufficient information. It comprehensively considers the effects of various uncertainties, such as measurement, cognitive, and stochastic uncertainties, and proposes a generalized normal grey cloud Bayesian Wiener process (GNGCBWP) stochastic degradation model. First, based on the historical degradation information of the system, the interval grey number sequence of the degradation increment is constructed, and the performance degradation path of the system is analyzed to determine the degradation model type. Then, combining the normal grey cloud and Bayesian estimation theory, the relevant definitions and theorems of generalized normal grey cloud Bayesian estimation (GNGCBE) are proposed. Finally, the parameter estimation results obtained using the GNGCBE method are substituted into the grey Wiener process degradation model to dynamically analyze performance reliability degradation and predict the remaining useful life (RUL) in real‐time. And the validity and scientificity of the proposed model is verified through a case study of laser equipment. Moreover, the comparison results of the models indicate that the proposed model has advantages in dynamic analysis of performance reliability degradation and real‐time RUL prediction for highly reliable complex systems with limited or poor degradation information. It can significantly reduce the impact of multiple uncertainties on the analysis results and improve the accuracy and reliability of the final prediction results.