Predictors of distant metastatic recurrence in head and neck cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma with lymph node metastases treated with curative intent: A multicenter study

Author:

Ebrahimi Ardalan123,Gupta Ruta45,McDowell Lachlan67ORCID,Magarey Matthew J. R.89,Smith Paul N.1,Schulte Klaus‐Martin1,Perriman Diana M.1,Veness Michael510,Porceddu Sandro1112,Low Tsu‐Hui Hubert25,Fowler Allan13,Clark Jonathan R.2514

Affiliation:

1. Medical School, College of Health and Medicine Australian National University Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia

2. Department of Head and Neck Surgery, Sydney Head and Neck Cancer Institute Chris O'Brien Lifehouse Sydney New South Wales Australia

3. Department of Head and Neck Surgery The Canberra Hospital Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia

4. Department of Tissue Pathology and Diagnostic Oncology Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Sydney New South Wales Australia

5. Sydney Medical School, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences The University of Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia

6. Department of Radiation Oncology Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre Melbourne Victoria Australia

7. Sir Peter MacCallum Department of Oncology The University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia

8. Department of Surgical Oncology Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre Melbourne Victoria Australia

9. Department of Medical Education University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia

10. Department of Radiation Oncology Westmead Hospital Sydney New South Wales Australia

11. Department of Radiation Oncology Princess Alexandra Hospital Brisbane Queensland Australia

12. School of Medicine The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia

13. Department of Radiation Oncology Liverpool Hospital Sydney New South Wales Australia

14. Royal Prince Alfred Institute of Academic Surgery Sydney Local Health District Camperdown New South Wales Australia

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundWe aimed to identify predictors of distant metastatic recurrence (DMR) in patients with head and neck cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (HNcSCC) with nodal metastases treated with curative intent.MethodsPredictors of DMR were identified using Cox regression in a multicenter study of 1151 patients.ResultsThe 5‐year risk of DMR was 9.6%. On multivariate analysis, immunosuppression (HR 2.93; 95% CI: 1.70–5.05; p < 0.001), nodal size >6 cm [versus ≤3 cm (HR 2.77; 95% CI: 1.09–7.03; p = 0.032)], ≥5 nodal metastases [versus 1–2 (HR 2.79; 95% CI: 1.63–4.78; p < 0.001)], and bilateral disease (HR 3.11; 95% CI: 1.40–6.90; p = 0.005) predicted DMR. A DMR risk score was developed that stratified risk from 6.6% (no risk factors) to 100% (≥3 risk factors) (p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe risk of DMR in nodal metastatic HNcSCC increases with immunosuppression, nodal size >6 cm, ≥5 nodal metastases, and bilateral disease. A simple DMR risk score estimated prior to treatment may be clinically useful.

Publisher

Wiley

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