Optimal timing of delivery for growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis: A decision analysis

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveOur objective was to determine the optimal timing of delivery of growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis in the setting of normal umbilical artery (UA) Dopplers.MethodsWe designed a decision analytic model using TreeAge software for a hypothetical cohort of 2000 fetuses with isolated gastroschisis, fetal growth restriction (FGR), and normal UA Dopplers across 34–39 weeks of gestation. This model accounted for costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for the pregnant individual and the neonate. Model outcomes included stillbirth, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), short gut syndrome (SGS), neonatal sepsis, neonatal death, and neurodevelopmental disability (NDD).ResultsWe found 38 weeks to be the optimal timing of delivery for minimizing overall perinatal mortality and leading to the highest total QALYs. Compared to 37 weeks, delivery at 38 weeks resulted in 367.98 more QALYs, 2.22 more cases of stillbirth, 2.41 fewer cases of RDS, 0.02 fewer cases of NEC, 1.65 fewer cases of IVH, 0.5 fewer cases of SGS, 2.04 fewer cases of sepsis, 11.8 fewer neonatal deaths and 3.37 fewer cases of NDD. However, 39 weeks were the most cost‐effective strategy with a savings of $1,053,471 compared to 38 weeks. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that 38 weeks was the optimal gestational age for delivery 51.70% of the time, 39 weeks were optimal 47.40% of the time, and 37 weeks was optimal 0.90% of the time.ConclusionTaking into consideration a range of adverse perinatal outcomes and cost effectiveness, 38–39 weeks gestation is ideal for the delivery of fetuses with gastroschisis, FGR, and normal UA Dopplers. However, there are unique details to consider for each case, and the timing of delivery should be individualized using shared multidisciplinary decision making.