Grounding alcohol simulation models in empirical and theoretical alcohol research: a model for a Northern Plains population in the United States

Abstract

AbstractThe growing number of systems science simulation models for alcohol use (AU) are often disconnected from AU models within empirical and theoretical alcohol research. As AU prevention/intervention efforts are typically grounded in alcohol research, this disconnect may reduce policy testing results, impact, and implementation. We developed a simulation model guided by AU research (accounting for the multiple AU stages defined by AU behavior and risk for harm and diverse transitions between stages). Simulated projections were compared to historical data to evaluate model accuracy and potential policy leverage points for prevention and intervention at risky drinking (RD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) stages. Results indicated prevention provided the greatest RD and AUD reduction; however, focusing exclusively on AUD prevention may not be effective for long‐term change, given the continued increase in RD. This study makes a case for the strength and importance of aligning subject‐based research with systems science simulation models. © 2023 System Dynamics Society.