A Bayesian zero‐inflated beta‐binomial model for longitudinal data with group‐specific changepoints

Author:

Wen Chun‐Che1ORCID,Baker Nathaniel1ORCID,Paul Rajib2ORCID,Hill Elizabeth1ORCID,Hunt Kelly1,Li Hong3ORCID,Gray Kevin4,Neelon Brian1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Public Health Sciences Medical University of South Carolina Charleston South Carolina USA

2. Department of Public Health Sciences University of North Carolina at Charlotte Charlotte North Carolina USA

3. Department of Public Health Sciences University of California Davis California USA

4. Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences Medical University of South Carolina Charleston South Carolina USA

Abstract

Timeline followback (TLFB) is often used in addiction research to monitor recent substance use, such as the number of abstinent days in the past week. TLFB data usually take the form of binomial counts that exhibit overdispersion and zero inflation. Motivated by a 12‐week randomized trial evaluating the efficacy of varenicline tartrate for smoking cessation among adolescents, we propose a Bayesian zero‐inflated beta‐binomial model for the analysis of longitudinal, bounded TLFB data. The model comprises a mixture of a point mass that accounts for zero inflation and a beta‐binomial distribution for the number of days abstinent in the past week. Because treatment effects appear to level off during the study, we introduce random changepoints for each study group to reflect group‐specific changes in treatment efficacy over time. The model also includes fixed and random effects that capture group‐ and subject‐level slopes before and after the changepoints. Using the model, we can accurately estimate the mean trend for each study group, test whether the groups experience changepoints simultaneously, and identify critical windows of treatment efficacy. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs and Metropolis–Hastings steps. Our application shows that the varenicline group has a short‐term positive effect on abstinence that tapers off after week 9.

Funder

Hollings Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina

National Institute on Drug Abuse

National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Statistics and Probability,Epidemiology

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3