Precipitation homogenization and trends in the Usumacinta River Basin (Mexico‐Guatemala) over the period 1959–2018

Author:

Jupin Johanna L. J.12,Garcia‐López Alan A.34,Briceño‐Zuluaga Francisco J.5,Sifeddine Abdelfettah26,Ruiz‐Fernández Ana Carolina7ORCID,Sanchez‐Cabeza Joan‐Albert7,Cardoso‐Mohedano José Gilberto8

Affiliation:

1. Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Ciudad de México Mexico

2. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (LOCEAN‐IPSL) Sorbonne Université Paris France

3. Departamento de Investigación y Servicios Meteorológicos Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología‐INSIVUMEH Ciudad de Guatemala Guatemala

4. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Columbia University New York USA

5. Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences New Granada Military University (UMNG) Bogotá Colombia

6. ERC2‐Université de Quisqueya Port au Prince Haiti

7. Unidad Académica Mazatlán, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mazatlán Mexico

8. Estación el Carmen, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Ciudad del Carmen Mexico

Abstract

AbstractThe precipitation variability and trends were investigated in the Usumacinta River Basin (URB) for the period 1959–2018, based on imputed and homogenized data records from 60 meteorological stations in Mexico and Guatemala. The homogenization process played a crucial role in enhancing the quality of the original precipitation series, reducing regional inconsistencies and improving temporal and spatial coherence. The dataset reliably captured large‐scale climate variations, revealing three regions with similar precipitation variability and trends in the URB. Notably, maximum precipitation occurred at 636 m a.s.l., while minimum precipitation was at 1531 m a.s.l., indicating an orographic effect in the region. Extreme precipitation events were linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Although the Mann–Kendall test showed statistically significant negative trends in only 18% of the stations, integration of Sen's slope analysis and 30‐year normals and dry year occurrences highlighted a progressive shift towards dryer conditions throughout the study period in the URB. These drier conditions could notably affect regions with higher precipitation, requiring special attention due to possible socioeconomic impacts associated with drought events. By identifying these vulnerable regions, policymakers and stakeholders can proactively plan and execute adaptive measures to mitigate the potential impacts of droughts on communities, ecosystems, and economic activities within the basin.

Funder

Dirección General de Asuntos del Personal Académico, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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