Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation‐CO2 feedback

Author:

Wang Tingting1ORCID,Sun Fubao1234ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China

3. Akesu National Station of Observation and Research for Oasis Agro‐ecosystem Akesu China

4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Abstract

AbstractClimate change has intensified drought severity, duration, frequency, and the spatial extent, promoting considerable concern about the socioeconomic exposure to drought. Some previous studies have suggested the overestimation of drought indices and more drying due to neglecting the impact of vegetation response to CO2. Using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the socioeconomic projections, we quantified the impact of vegetation‐CO2 feedback on extreme drought frequency and the corresponding exposure of population and GDP under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show that extreme drought frequency will increase significantly, affecting over 70% of global land by the 2050s. Along with rapid growth of socioeconomic factors, population and GDP exposure will increase by 26.90%–36.12% and 2.51–2.95 folds in the 2030s and 67.78%–78.72% and 3.41–5.94 folds in the 2050s. Underdeveloped countries are projected to face the most significant challenges, with substantial increases in population and GDP exposure to extreme drought. By incorporating the impact of vegetation‐CO2 feedback, we address biases of around 2% in extreme drought frequency, particularly in arid and semi‐arid regions, showing underestimations of more drying across around half of global land in the baseline period and the 2030s. The biases, however, shift to be overestimations globally in the 2050s. As a result, early underestimations of extreme drought frequency will lead to significant underestimations in exposed population and GDP by 5.25% and 6.07% in the baseline period, as well as in the 2030s. In contrast, later overestimations will lead to overestimations of exposed population by 3.16%–8.54% and exposed GDP by 2.82%–6.65% in the 2050s. This study provides a more accurate estimation of socioeconomic exposure to extreme drought and highlights the potential risks associated with global warming.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3