Statistics of sudden stratospheric warmings using a large model ensemble

Author:

Ineson Sarah1ORCID,Dunstone Nick J.1ORCID,Scaife Adam A.12ORCID,Andrews Martin B.1ORCID,Lockwood Julia F.1ORCID,Pang Bo3ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK

2. Department of Mathematics University of Exeter Exeter UK

3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Abstract

AbstractUsing a large ensemble of initialised retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) from a seasonal prediction system, we explore various statistics relating to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Observations show that SSWs occur at a similar frequency during both El Niño and La Niña northern hemisphere winters. This is contrary to expectation, as the stronger stratospheric polar vortex associated with La Niña years might be expected to result in fewer of these extreme breakdowns. Here we show that this similar frequency may have occurred by chance due to the limited sample of years in the observational record. We also show that in these hindcasts, winters with two SSWs, a rare event in the observational record, on average have an increased surface impact. Multiple SSW events occur at a lower rate than expected if events were independent but somewhat surprisingly, our analysis also indicates a risk, albeit small, of winters with three or more SSWs, as yet an unseen event.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Atmospheric Science

Reference59 articles.

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2. A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009

3. Teleconnections of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO ‐resolving models

4. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

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