Efficient model‐correction based reliability analysis of uncertain dynamical systems

Abstract

AbstractIn this contribution, a model‐correction‐based strategy is applied for efficient reliability analysis of uncertain dynamical systems based on a low‐fidelity (LF) model whose outcomes are corrected in a probabilistic sense to represent the more realistic outcomes of the high‐fidelity (HF) model. In the model‐correction approach utilized, the LF model is calibrated to the HF model close to the so‐called most probable point (MPP) in standard normal space, which allows a more realistic assessment of the considered complex dynamical system. Since only few expensive limit state function evaluations of the HF model are required, an efficient reliability analysis is enabled. In an application example, the LF model describes an existing single span railway bridge modelled as simply supported Euler‐Bernoulli beam subjected to moving single forces representing the axle loads of a moving train. The HF modelling approach accounts for the bridge‐train interaction by modelling the passing train as mass‐spring‐damper (MSD) system, however increasing the computational effort of the limit state function evaluations. The failure probabilities evaluated with the model‐correction approach are contrasted and discussed with the failure probabilities of the sophisticated bridge‐train interaction model. It is shown that the model‐correction‐based approach provides reliable failure probability prediction of the HF model while leading to a significant reduction in computational effort.