Predicting age at Alzheimer's dementia onset with the cognitive clock

Abstract

AbstractINTRODUCTIONIntervention of Alzheimer's dementia hinges on early diagnosis and advanced planning. This work utilizes the cognitive clock, a novel indicator of brain health, to develop a dementia prediction model that can be easily applied in broad settings.METHODSData came from over 3000 community‐dwelling older adults. Cognitive age was estimated by aligning Mini‐Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores to a clock that represents the typical cognitive aging profile. We identified a mean cognitive age at Alzheimer's dementia onset and predicted the corresponding chronological age at person‐specific level.RESULTSThe mean chronological age at baseline was 78 years. A total of 881 (28%) participants developed Alzheimer's dementia. The mean cognitive age at onset was 91 years. The predicted chronological age at onset had a mean (standard deviation) of 87.6 (6.7) years. The model's prediction accuracy was supported by multiple testing statistics.DISCUSSIONOur model offers an easy‐to‐use tool for predicting person‐specific age at Alzheimer's dementia onset.