Affiliation:
1. Albers School of Business and Economics Seattle University Seattle Washington USA
2. Questrom School of Business Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA
3. Columbia Business School Columbia University New York New York USA
Abstract
AbstractAcross a range of decision contexts, we provide evidence of a novel proximity bias in probability judgments, whereby spatial distance and outcome valence systematically interact in determining probability judgments. Six hypothetical and incentive‐compatible experiments (combined N = 4007) show that a positive outcome is estimated as more likely to occur when near than distant, whereas a negative outcome is estimated as less likely to occur when near than distant (studies 1–6). The proximity bias is explained by wishful thinking and thus perceptions of outcome desirability (study 3), and it does not manifest when an outcome is less relevant for the self, such as the case of outcomes with little consequence for the self (studies 4 and 5) or when estimating outcomes for others who are irrelevant to the self (study 6). Overall, the proximity bias we document deepens our understanding of the antecedents of probability judgments.
Subject
Marketing,Applied Psychology
Cited by
2 articles.
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