Modelling the long-term cost-effectiveness of endovascular or open repair for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Abstract

Abstract Background Recent randomized trials have shown that endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) has a 3 per cent aneurysm-related survival benefit in patients fit for open surgery, but it also has uncertain long-term outcomes and higher costs. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of EVAR. Methods A decision model was constructed to estimate the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with EVAR and open repair in men aged 74 years. The model includes the risks of death from aneurysm, other cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes, secondary reinterventions and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Data were taken largely from the EVAR trial 1 and supplemented from other sources. Results Under the base-case (primary) assumptions, EVAR cost £3800 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) £2400 to £5200) more per patient than open repair but produced fewer lifetime QALYs (mean − 0·020 (95 per cent c.i. − 0·189 to 0·165)). These results were sensitive to alternative model assumptions. Conclusion EVAR is unlikely to be cost-effective on the basis of existing devices, costs and evidence, but there remains considerable uncertainty.