Associations of short‐term changes in obesity indices with all‐cause mortality and cardiovascular disease

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate how short‐term changes (1‐, 3‐, and 5‐year) in obesity measures affect mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.MethodsWe analyzed longitudinal data from the MJ Health Centre (n = 43,304 for the 1‐year study; 24,295 for the 3‐year study; 16,138 for the 5‐year study) with median follow‐up periods of 15.8, 13.9, and 12.3 years, respectively. Associations of short‐term obesity indices changes with mortality and Framingham Risk Score changes were explored using time‐dependent coefficient Cox regression models, restricted cubic splines, and multivariable linear regression models.ResultsAll‐cause mortality was negatively associated with short‐term weight and BMI changes, with greater reductions causing poorer outcomes. Compared with stable groups, short‐term reduced weight and BMI were associated with greater risks of all‐cause mortality and CVD‐specific mortality (5‐year study only). Also, either 1‐ and 3‐year reduced or 3‐year increased waist circumference and waist to height ratio were related to higher all‐cause and CVD deaths than stable groups, respectively. Nonlinear relationships indicated lower cutoff values for short‐term changes in obesity indices in predicting all‐cause mortality. Decreased obesity indices significantly improved CVD profiles.ConclusionsShort‐term changes in obesity indices show complex mortality risks, urging personalized approaches beyond a simple weight loss focus.