The history of UK weather forecasting: the changing role of the central guidance forecaster. Part 7: Operational forecasting in the twenty‐first century: graphical guidance products, risk assessment and impact‐based warnings

Abstract

AbstractMet Office guidance forecasters continue to add value to NWP products, but in ways that could scarcely have been imagined half a century ago. We focus on how technological advances including ‘Field Modification’ have facilitated the creation of forecast products and new forms of graphical guidance to assist in the communication of the preferred weather story. We also describe a new impact‐based severe weather warnings service. This involves the interpretation of forecast outputs, including ensembles, and collaboration with other agencies to assess risks and impacts, thus enabling appropriate mitigating action to be taken in support of local and national resilience.