A Framework for Algae Modeling in Regulatory Risk Assessment

Abstract

AbstractThe use of toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) modeling in regulatory risk assessment of plant protection products is increasingly popular, especially since the 2018 European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) opinion on TKTD modeling announced that several established models are ready for use in risk assessment. With careful adherence to the guidelines laid out by EFSA, we present a stepwise approach to validation and use of the Simple Algae Model Extended (SAM‐X) for regulatory submission in Tier 2C. We demonstrate how the use of moving time windows across time‐variable exposure profiles can generate thousands of virtual laboratory mimic simulations that seamlessly predict the effects of time‐variable exposures across a full exposure profile while maintaining the laboratory conditions of the standard Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) growth inhibition test. Thus, every virtual laboratory test has a duration of 72 h, with OECD medium and constant light and temperature conditions. The only deviation from the standard test setup is the replacement of constant exposure conditions for time‐variable concentrations. The present study demonstrates that for simulation of 72‐h toxicity tests, the nutrient dynamics in the SAM‐X model are not required, and we propose the alternative use of a simplified model version. For risk assessment, in accordance with the EFSA guidelines we use a median exposure profile of 10 as a threshold, meaning that if a time window within the exposure profile causes 50% growth inhibition when magnified by a factor of 10, the threshold will have been exceeded. We present a simplified example for chlorotoluron and isoproturon. The present case study brings to life our proposed framework for TKTD modeling of algae to establish whether a given exposure can be considered to be of low risk. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1823–1838. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.