Statistical modeling to relate technology readiness to schedule

Author:

Kenley C. Robert1ORCID,Subramanian Shrividya1ORCID,Adams Katherine M.1

Affiliation:

1. Industrial Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette Indiana USA

Abstract

AbstractProjects from U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Energy technology development activities provide historical data on project completion timelines versus technology readiness levels that were assessed during the life cycle of a program. A statistical analysis was performed to develop a method to forecast future project completion timelines based on technical maturity assessments. The goodness‐of‐fit of the model used for forecasting also was evaluated, and the null hypothesis that the data follows the probability distribution used for the forecasting model could not be rejected at a Type I error level of 0.05. Several potential extensions to the model using product forecasting methods, semi‐Markov processes, and Bayes nets are presented. The limitations of the statistical modeling and of the potential extensions are also discussed.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Computer Networks and Communications,Hardware and Architecture

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4. DOE/ID‐10561 Plutonium Focus Area Research and Development Plan (Revision 2a) Plutonium Focus Area Technical Advisory Panel.1997.

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