Streamflow change of major rivers over the Tibetan Plateau during the last half century and its possible causes

Abstract

AbstractThe streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in the water supply of Asia's main river basins. To enhance understanding of hydrologic cycle under the pronounced warming over the TP, this study comprehensively investigates the streamflow changes at the upstream of six major rivers (Yellow River, Yalong River, Jinsha River, Lancang River, Nu River, and Yarlung Zangbo River) originating from the TP, and then diagnoses their possible causes by analysing the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Results indicate that these six major rivers studied have generally insignificant increasing trends in annual streamflow during the last half century, except for two stations. The significant increase appears at the Tuotuohe station in the headwater area of Jinsha River, while the dramatic decrease occurs at the Yunjinghong station in the downstream of Lancang River. In terms of climate factors, the six river basins show a distinct warming trend, along with a noticeable increase in precipitation over the central and northern regions. Pan evaporation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity have been found to gradually decrease in most areas. As for the Tuotuohe station, both warming‐induced meltwater and increasing precipitation might jointly contribute to the increasing streamflow. But for the Yunjinghong station, the results simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model indicate that human activities, especially for the impoundment processes of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu dams, significantly influenced the streamflow, contributing to approximately 69% of the streamflow reduction during 2009–2013. In the context of accelerated global warming, greater attention should be paid to hydrometeorological changes on the TP to offer further insights for the water resources management of the ‘Asian Water Tower’.