Association of baseline and longitudinal changes in insulin‐like growth factor‐binding protein‐7 with the risk of incident heart failure: Data from the PREVEND study

Abstract

AbstractAimSenescence is a major risk factor for heart failure (HF), and insulin‐like growth factor‐binding protein‐7 (IGFBP7) has been identified as an important senescence‐inducing factor. The aim of this study was to examine the value of baseline and repeat IGFBP7 measurements in predicting future HF among community‐dwelling Dutch adults from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End‐stage Disease (PREVEND) study.Methods and resultsIndividuals without prevalent HF who attended PREVEND visits 2 and 4 median of 5.1 years apart (25th–75th percentile, 4.9–5.2) with measurements of IGFBP7 were included. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the association between IGFBP7 and HF incidence. A total of 6125 participants attending visit 2 (mean ± standard deviation [SD] age 53.1 ± 12.2 years; 3151 [51.4%] men) were followed for a median of 8.4 (7.8–8.9) years, and 194 participants (3.2%) developed incident HF. Median baseline IGFBP7 concentration was 87.0 (75.1–97.3) ng/ml, and baseline IGFBP7 levels were significantly associated with risk for incident HF (HF risk factors adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD change in log‐transformed IGFBP7: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.46). Baseline IGFBP7 was also significantly associated with incident HF in individuals with N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide <125 ng/L. Among 3879 participants attending both visits 2 and 4 (mean ± SD age 57.5 ± 11.3 years; 1952 [50.3%] men), 93 individuals developed HF (after visit 4) during a median follow‐up of 3.2 (2.8–3.9) years. Median increase in IGFBP7 concentration between visits was 0.68 (−7.09 to 8.36) ng/ml, and changes in IGFBP7 levels were significantly associated with risk for incident HF (HF risk factors adjusted HR per 1 SD change in log‐transformed IGFBP7: 1.68, 95% CI 1.19–2.36).ConclusionsBoth baseline as well as repeat IGFBP7 measurements provide information about the risk of developing HF.