Affiliation:
1. National Consortium on the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) University of Maryland College Park College Park Maryland USA
2. Department of Humanities & Arts Worcester Polytech Institute Worcester Massachusetts USA
3. Department of Social Science & Policy Studies Worcester Polytech Institute Worcester Massachusetts USA
4. Cornell Engineering Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
Abstract
AbstractThis paper brings a systems engineering approach to policymaking in the context of violent radicalization. We test strategies to combat terrorism under the premise that violent radicalization is a complex system of social contagion resulting in terrorism. We built a simulation using DIME‐PMESII military standards to replicate a terror contagion occurring over 10 years in both physical and online environments under optimal, realistic, and worst‐case scenarios. We then tested antiterrorism, counterterrorism, and counter radicalization strategies as policy experiments in this simulation. These experiments identified four key dynamics relevant for developing policies to reduce terrorism. First, most well‐known policies are ineffective in containing terrorism driven by social contagion. Second, strategies generating backlash can become worse than doing nothing at all. Third, perceived grievance determines the carrying capacity of terrorism in a system, allowing disrupted networks to regenerate. Fourth, variable public support may result in sharp secondary waves of violence under certain contingencies. Experimenting with our model, we explore effective ways to address the violent radicalization problem.
Subject
Computer Networks and Communications,Hardware and Architecture
Reference75 articles.
1. GreenblattJ.It could happen here: why America is tipping from hate to the unthinkable – and how we can stop it.HarperCollins;2022.
2. Different Types of Role Model Influence and Fame Seeking Among Mass Killers and Copycat Offenders
3. A Model Centric Framework and Approach for Complex Systems Policy
4. “Systems Engineering Vision 2035 ” International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) 2021.https://www.incose.org/docs/default‐source/se‐vision/incose‐se‐vision‐2035.pdf?sfvrsn=e32063c7_4