Assessing the economy using faster indicators

Abstract

AbstractThis paper constructs a coincident indicator for the United Kingdom employing—for the first time—a novel set of “faster” indicators recently published by the Office for National Statistics. Most of these variables were first released during the COVID‐19 pandemic with the aim of facilitating economics and social research by more timely indicators. The empirical evidence suggests that a coincident indicator based on a novel weekly dataset successfully captures the economic conditions in real time. We further use this indicator in an out‐of‐sample macroeconomic nowcasting exercise targeting monthly economic growth, prices and retail sales.