Deep‐learning‐based downscaling of precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yellow River using residual‐based CNNs

Abstract

AbstractThe middle reaches of the Yellow River (MRYR), located in northern China, are the transition zone between semi‐arid and semi‐humid climates. As one of the climate‐sensitive regions in China, MRYR has a fragile ecological environment and serious soil loss, which leads to geological disasters such as landslides, collapses, and mudslides caused by extreme precipitation. However, scarceness of high‐resolution precipitation data over MRYR limits assessment of the environmental impacts caused by climate change, especially for extreme precipitation. In this article, we design a Residual‐in‐Residual Dense Block based Network (RRDBNet) model for the statistical downscaling of precipitation in MRYR, and compare the proposed RRDBNet with a generalized linear regression model (GLM) and two popular deep‐learning‐based models. The multi‐level residuals and dense connectivity strategies introduced in RRDBNet help it to learn more abstract features and complex nonlinear relationships among climate variables to improve downscaling performance. The results show that the proposed RRDBNet has good performance in precipitation simulations, which can reproduce the spatial–temporal characteristics of high‐resolution precipitation well. RRDBNet reduces the root‐mean‐squared error (RMSE) by 19% and improves the Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) by 6% relative to GLM for climatology mean precipitation. Especially, RRDBNet has substantial improvements in extreme precipitation compared with other models. It reduces RMSE by 58% (79%) and improves CC by 38% (145%) relative to GLM for R95P (R99P), where R95P and R99P represent extreme precipitation and very extreme precipitation, respectively. For the probability density function of daily precipitation, it is further demonstrated that RRDBNet performs better as regards extreme precipitation frequency. Our results suggest that statistical downscaling based on RRDBNet may be an effective tool for historical and future climate simulations from global climate models.