Using international migration links for early detection of COVID‐19 risk exposure in low‐ and middle‐income countries

Author:

Khan Mahreen1,Ahsan Reshad2,Iqbal Kazi3,Mobarak Ahmed Mushfiq4,Shonchoy Abu S.5

Affiliation:

1. Oxford Martin School University of Oxford Oxford UK

2. Department of Economics University of Melbourne Melbourne Australia

3. Industry and Physical Infrastructure Division Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Dhaka Bangladesh

4. Department of Economics Florida International University Miami Florida USA

5. Department of Economics Yale University New Haven Connecticut USA

Abstract

AbstractReliable testing data for new infectious diseases like COVID‐19 is scarce in developing countries making it difficult to rapidly diagnose spatial disease transmission and identify at‐risk areas. We propose a method that uses readily available data on bi‐lateral migration channels combined with COVID‐19 cases at respective migrant destinations to construct a spatially oriented risk index. We find significant and consistent association between our measure and various types of outcomes including actual COVID‐19 cases and deaths, indices of government policy responses, and community mobility patterns. Results suggest that future pandemic models should incorporate migration‐linkages to predict regional socio‐economic and health risk exposure.

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Development

Reference34 articles.

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5. Barnett‐Howell Z. andA. M.Mobarak.2020.Should Low‐Income Countries Impose the Same Guidelines as Europe and North America to Halt the Spread of COVID‐19?Yale University.https://som.yale.edu/should-low-income-countries-impose-the-same-social-distancing-guidelines-as-europe-and-north-america-to-halt-the-spread-of-covid-19

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