An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow‐throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Author:

Banda Lumbani Benedicto12ORCID,Dejene Sintayehu W.23,Mzumara Tiwonge I.4,McCarthy Christopher5,Pangapanga‐Phiri Innocent1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Environment and Natural Resources Management Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) Lilongwe Malawi

2. Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation Haramaya University Dire Dawa Ethiopia

3. College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences Haramaya University Dire Dawa Ethiopia

4. Department of Biological Sciences Malawi University of Science and Technology (MUST) Limbe Malawi

5. Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences Johns Hopkins University Baltimore Massachusetts USA

Abstract

AbstractClimate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow‐throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Publisher

Wiley

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3