Affiliation:
1. School of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering University of Essex Colchester UK
2. Department of Computing, Goldsmiths University of London London UK
Abstract
SummaryDirectional change (DC) is an alternative to time series in recording transactions: it only records the transactions at which price changes to the opposite direction of the current trend by a threshold specified by the observer. DC can only be confirmed in hindsight: one does not know that direction has changed until it is confirmed by a later transaction. The transaction in which the price confirms a DC is called a DC confirmation point. DC nowcasting is an attempt to recognize DC before the DC confirmation point. Accurate DC nowcasting will benefit trading. In this paper, we propose a method for DC nowcasting. This method is entirely data driven: it is based on the historical distribution of DC‐related indicators. Empirical results suggest that DC nowcasting is possible, even under a naïve rule. This opens the door to a promising research direction on an important topic.