Mathematical modeling of terrorism dynamics: Qualitative analysis and theoretical perspective

Abstract

Terrorism has become a daily occurrence in our world, and governments and security forces around the world are highly concerned about stopping or minimizing terrorist activities. This study proposes a new approach to counter‐terrorism through compartmental mathematical modeling on underlying principles of terrorism, such as recruiting new terrorists, military interventions, limitations in military interventions, desertion from the group, and influence time. We introduce the influence time in the present terrorism model to include the time it takes for a person to become a member of a terrorist group when effectively attracted. A system of delay differential equations is proposed to model terrorism dynamics. The model results are analyzed and investigated through qualitative analysis for two obtained equilibria, namely, a terrorism‐free equilibrium and terrorism‐persistent equilibrium. Finally, some numerical results support our analytical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed counter‐terrorism mathematical modeling approach. This study enhances the theoretical understanding of policymakers on terrorism mitigation and offers valuable insights into developing effective counter‐terrorism strategies.