Uncertainty analysis of wind speed of wind turbine

Abstract

AbstractThe uncertainty of wind speed has a great impact on the reliability of wind turbines. However, previous studies usually used average wind speed or rated wind speed as inputs, ignoring the impact of time and space distribution on wind speed. Based on the hourly ground observation data of meteorological stations, four observation stations are taken as the research object of the uncertainty of wind speed spatial distribution. The four observation stations are divided into single day and one week, and seven data analysis indicators and normal distribution models are used day and night to analyze the uncertainty of wind speed time distribution. The results show that both spatial distribution and temporal distribution are important factors that cause the uncertainty of wind speed. Due to different geographical locations of four stations, their wind speed time domain diagrams are different, and the maximum wind speed, fluctuation frequency and fluctuation amplitude of wind speed at each observation station are different; The wind speed distribution of a single day is quite different from that of a week. The data of a single day and a week are analyzed by day and night, which is quite different from the overall data analysis. The necessity of wind speed uncertainty research of wind turbine considering the temporal and spatial distribution is verified, and it is concluded that normal distribution is not suitable for fitting the distribution model of four stations under study, which lays a foundation for determining the wind speed distribution model, analyzing the power characteristics of wind turbine, evaluating the generation capacity of wind turbine, and analyzing the reliability of wind turbine.