The role of crop simulation modeling in assessing potential climate change impacts

Abstract

AbstractAgriculture is weather dependent, and changes in climate can have a drastic impact on our ability to feed, fuel, and clothe the world's population. Climate change is causing more frequent and unprecedented extreme weather events that are already negatively affecting agriculture. We need to assess the effects of extreme temperatures and rainfall on agriculture. Patterns of short‐term extreme weather events, such as elevated temperatures, flooding, and strong winds, are not predictable enough to design field experiments around. Process‐based crop and soil simulation models allow us to explore new management options and thus provide whole‐system‐based knowledge and management guides for different locations over variable climate conditions. By using crop simulation models, researchers can test different adaptation strategies and assess their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In this paper, we discuss the development of crop models and how they have been used to assess the effects of a changing climate on agricultural productivity and propose methods for agriculture to adapt to those changes. We describe potential applications of crop models to assess regional issues such as irrigation demand, greenhouse gas emissions, and policy decisions. Better understanding of how weather and climate forecasts at various scales are provided and the reliability of these forecasts is important for using crop models as a planning tool. Different approaches for simulating long‐term climate change impacts on crop yield and seasonal yield forecasting are discussed. The use of ensemble models to better assess climate change impacts is also discussed.