Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China

Abstract

AbstractStarting from May 31, 2023, the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been explored. Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first 3 weeks of Beijing (from May 31 to June 21, 2023), we employed the instant‐individual heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the effective reproduction number (Re) and the degree of heterogeneity (k) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to November and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission dynamics. We estimated Re to be 1.68 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1.12−2.41), and k to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54−83.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was supercritical and didn't have considerable transmission heterogeneity. We projected that Re fell in the range of 0.95−1.0 from July to November, highlighting more efforts needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results could serve as a reference for understanding and predicting the ongoing Mpox transmission in other regions of China and evaluating the effect of control measures.