Glasgow Aneurysm Score as a predictor of immediate outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Abstract

Abstract Background The aim of the study was to assess the value of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative death after repair of a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Methods Between 1991 and 1999, 836 patients underwent surgery for ruptured AAA. Their operative risk at presentation was evaluated retrospectively using the Glasgow Aneurysm Score, based on data from the nationwide Finnvasc registry. Results The operative mortality rate was 47·2 per cent (395 of 836); 164 patients (19·6 per cent) had cardiac complications and 164 (19·6 per cent) required intensive care treatment for more than 5 days. Predictors of postoperative death in univariate analysis were: coronary artery disease (P = 0·005), preoperative shock (P < 0·001), age (P < 0·001), and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (P < 0·001). In multivariate analysis the predictors were: preoperative shock (odds ratio (OR) 2·13 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1·45 to 3·11); P < 0·001) and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (for an increase of ten units: OR 1·81 (95 per cent c.i. 1·54 to 2·12); P < 0·001). Receiver–operator characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the best cut-off value of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative death was 84 (area under the curve 0·75 (95 per cent c.i. 0·72 to 0·78), standard error 0·17; P < 0·001). The operative mortality rate was 28·2 per cent (114 of 404) in patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score of 84 or less, compared with 65·0 per cent (281 of 432) in those with a score greater than 84 (P < 0·001). Conclusion The Glasgow Aneurysm Score predicted postoperative death after repair of ruptured AAA in this series.