A simulation model of climate policy analysis for sustainable environment in Pakistan

Abstract

AbstractThis study suggested a plan for making low carbon society (LCS) in Pakistan by 2050. Low Emissions Analysis Platform is used for simulation the entire energy system and forecasted the future CO2 emissions in relation to the use of renewable and fossil fuel resources under the two scenarios namely high carbon society (HCS) and LCS. Additionally, marginal abatement cost of future energy system is forecasted for the study period 2022–2050. The results revealed that, 100% de‐carbonization is possible under the LCS scenario. Further, this scenario suggested that 1123.15 TWh units of green energy are generated to meet the total energy demand of 966.05 TWh till 2050. Biomass has greater share of 380.16 TWh followed by wind 370.67 TWh, solar 358.74 TWh, and hydro 13.58 TWh respectively. CO2 emissions are reduced from 151.63 million metric tons in HCS scenario to 8.90 million metric tons in LCS scenario till 2050 but cost is increased from 46.36 billion US dollar in HCS scenario to 546.49 billion US dollar in LCS scenario for the year 2050. The technique can also be applicable to the developing, under‐developed and developed nations around the globe.