Hydrological simulation of ungauged basins via forcing by large‐scale hydrology models

Abstract

AbstractThe established watershed's hydrologic simulation process, involving the calibration and validation of a model through spatiotemporal streamflow observations, has recently been adapted to encompass ungauged watersheds. The research introduces a methodology for simulating ungauged hydrosystems, suggesting the calibration and validation of regional rainfall‐runoff models using large‐scale hydrological models (LSMs) in the absence of in situ streamflow measurements. For doing so, LSM's 30‐years simulated discharges at various basins and subbasins of the case study River Basin District are assessed for their accuracy against the limited available observations. Subsequently, the rectified time series tunes the optimal parametrization of a regional lumped hydrologic model that is triggered by precipitation and temperature data from a partially dense meteorological network. The validated regional model is then applied in selective ungauged neighbouring subbasins employing the regionalization concept used in LSMs, that is in basins with similar physiographic characteristics to those where the regional model was set up. The performance of the research is assessed using statistical metrics. In cases where observations are available, the results show very satisfactory indexes (e.g., coefficient of determination: 0.654 < R2 < 0.949, Kling‐Gupta efficiency: 0.759 < KGE <0.790, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency: 0.649 < NSE <0.745 for all the cases). In completely ungauged basins and in an order of magnitude index, the comparison of the simulated discharges with those from the LSM also indicates the satisfactory performance of the proposed approach. To sum up, the methodology underscores the alternate use of large and regional scale hydrological modelling coupling as an asset across various basin scales globally, offering reliable water quantity information.