Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: the Role of Decomposed Term Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty

Author:

Aye Goodness C.1ORCID,Christou Christina2,Gil-Alana Luis A.3ORCID,Gupta Rangan1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Economics; University of Pretoria; Pretoria South Africa

2. School of Economics and Management; Open University of Cyprus; Latsia Cyprus

3. Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Edificio Biblioteca; Universidad de Navarra; Pamplona Spain

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Development,Geography, Planning and Development

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3. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models;Bai;Econometrica,2002

4. Measuring economic policy uncertainty;Baker;Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016

5. Policy risk and the business cycle;Born;Journal of Monetary Economics,2014

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