Advances in forecasting: An introduction in light of the debate on inflation forecasting

Author:

Banerjee Anindya1,Hall Stephen G.234,Kouretas Georgios P.5ORCID,Tavlas George S.36ORCID

Affiliation:

1. University of Birmingham Birmingham UK

2. University of Leicester Leicester UK

3. Bank of Greece Athens Greece

4. Pretoria University Pretoria South Africa

5. Athens University of Economics and Business Athens Greece

6. Hoover Institution, Stanford University Stanford California USA

Abstract

AbstractThe sharp rise in inflation during the past few years has engendered comparisons with the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. Like that earlier episode, the recent inflation has been underpinned by supply‐side shocks and, in the case of the United States, by highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. Like that early episode, the recent inflation has been largely unpredicted; it caught US policy makers by surprise, despite the fact that several prominent economists had warned early on that fiscal and monetary policies were setting the stage for an upsurge in inflation. To motivate this special issue, we provide a brief account of the policy miscues and policy debates that resulted from the large forecast errors in predicting the upsurge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. We then provide an overview of the papers in this issue, which address a range of methodological and empirical issues related to forecasting and highlight the dilemmas faced by agents within the economy and policy makers.

Funder

University of Crete

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Management Science and Operations Research,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Strategy and Management,Computer Science Applications,Modeling and Simulation,Economics and Econometrics

Reference25 articles.

1. Appelbaum B.(2021).Inflation Isn't Lurking Around the Corner. This Isn't the 1970s.New York Times February 16.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/16/opinion/democrats-biden-inflation.html

2. Arnold M.(2022).ECB takes hawkish shift as inflation surge shreds faith in models.Financial Times September 5.https://www.ft.com/content/e0fffb18-b603-4a36-8473-7a6176e5c795

3. Arnold M. Smith C. &Giles C.(2022).Central bank chiefs call end to era of low rates and moderate inflation.Financial Times June 29.https://www.ft.com/content/0c686df6-823b-49c2-bf0e-80e119d9e80a

4. Blinder A.(2021).There's no need to panic about a little inflation.The Wall Street Journal March 15.https://www.wsj.com/articles/theres-no-need-to-panic-about-a-little-inflation-11615848009

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