Future exposure of rainfall and temperature extremes to the most populous island of Indonesia: A projection based on CORDEX simulation

Author:

Hendrawan Vempi Satriya Adi1ORCID,Mawandha Hanggar Ganara2,Sakti Anjar Dimara34,Karlina 1,Andika Neil1,Shahid Shamsuddin5ORCID,Jayadi Rachmad1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta Indonesia

2. Department of Agricultural Engineering and Biosystem Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta Indonesia

3. Geographic Information Sciences and Technology Research Group, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology Institut Teknologi Bandung Bandung Indonesia

4. Center for Remote Sensing Institut Teknologi Bandung Bandung Indonesia

5. Department of Water and Environmental Engineering Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Johor Malaysia

Abstract

AbstractThe study focuses on understanding the future exposure to rainfall and temperature extremes in one of the world's most populous islands, Java, Indonesia. We use the high‐resolution climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulation for Southeast Asia by 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the island will likely experience drying in the lowlands due to annual rainfall decline by approximately 13%–18%, potentially exposing around 27%–73% of the population (varying under different scenarios) during the end of the century (2060–2099). Additionally, the future drying condition may be exacerbated by extreme temperatures with a 1.7–3.1°C increase in maximum daily temperature, linked with more than half of the population (63%) likely to experience at least an unprecedented temperature of 3°C under RCP8.5. Our seasonal analysis also suggests that dry seasons get even drier, and wet seasons get wetter. In terms of landuse areas exposed, we show a higher fraction of crop and forest areas may face both drying and warming, which can potentially lead to crop failure and wildfire. Our study indicates that compound drought and heat may be a common threat in lowland Java in the future, while intensifying rainfall extremes in the uplands may lead to flash flooding downstream and landslides. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the risks associated with climate change in Java as one of Indonesia's most critical regions in the future.

Funder

Universitas Gadjah Mada

Publisher

Wiley

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