Affiliation:
1. Faculty of Business Administration and Economics FernUniversität in Hagen Hagen Germany
2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy Kiel Germany
3. Faculty of Economics and Business Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg Schloßplatz 1 Freiberg D‐09599 Germany
Abstract
AbstractThis paper examines whether and how expectations have contributed to the turbulent path of the Turkish lira since 2008. We derive uncertainty measures surrounding gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, the interest rate, and exchange rates based on survey data from Consensus Economics. Our results illustrate that forecasts have affected realized exchange rates and stock market returns via increased uncertainty. We also show that expectations regarding monetary policy have changed throughout the sample period. In line with, a gradual adjustment of expectations professionals have accounted for the violation of the Taylor rule.
Subject
Management Science and Operations Research,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Strategy and Management,Computer Science Applications,Modeling and Simulation,Economics and Econometrics
Cited by
1 articles.
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