Risk compensation after COVID‐19 vaccination: Evidence from vaccine rollout by exact birth date in South Korea

Abstract

AbstractWe utilize the phased rollout of COVID‐19 vaccines by exact birth date in South Korea as a natural experiment for testing risk compensation. People may resume face‐to‐face social activities following vaccination because they perceive lower risk of infection. Applying a regression discontinuity design based on birth date cutoffs for vaccine eligibility, we find no evidence of risk‐compensating behaviors, as measured by large, high‐frequency data from credit card and airline companies as well as survey data. We find some evidence of self‐selection into vaccine take‐up based on perception toward vaccine effectiveness and side effects, but the treatment effects do not differ between compliers and never‐takers.