Affiliation:
1. Research Unit Sustainability and Climate Risks, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
2. Land Use Economics University of Hohenheim Stuttgart Germany
3. Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
4. Centre of Excellence on Sustainable Land Management Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education Dehradun Uttarakhand India
5. Transformation Pathways Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam Germany
6. Institute of Soil Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
Abstract
AbstractShifting cultivation will face increasing pressure from erosion‐related land degradation caused by rising cultivation intensities and climate change. However, empirical knowledge about future trends of soil erosion and thus land degradation in shifting cultivation systems is limited. We use the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to first explore the combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion of uphill shifting cultivation systems, using six surveyed soil profiles. We assess interactions between climate change, the length of the fallow period, and slope inclinations for a near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future period, considering three climate scenarios, five climate models, fallow periods between one and 20 years, and slopes between five and 70% steepness. Our results show a significant nonlinear relationship between global warming and erosion. Until the end of the century, erosion is estimated to increase by a factor of 1.2, 2.2, and 3.1 under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, compared with the historical baseline (1985–2014). Combined effects from climate change, fallow length, and slope inclination indicate that steep slopes require longer fallow periods, with an increase of slope from 5% to 10% multiplying the required fallow length by a mean factor of 2.5, and that fallow periods will need to be extended under higher global warming if erosion rates are to remain at current levels. These findings are novel as they link climate change effects on shifting cultivation systems to different slopes and fallow regimes, making an important contribution to understanding future erosion dynamics of traditional smallholder production systems in mountainous terrain, with relevant implications for policies on agricultural intensification.
Funder
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education
Subject
Soil Science,General Environmental Science,Development,Environmental Chemistry
Cited by
1 articles.
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