Evaluation of Osteoarthritis Disease Burden in China During 1990–2019 and Forecasting Its Trend Over the Future 25 Years

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aimed to estimate the temporal trend of osteoarthritis (OA) burden in China by age, sex, and joint sites from 1990 to 2019 and predict the long‐term trend over the next 25 years.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated incident cases, prevalent cases, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA, and DALYs of OA attributed to high body mass index (BMI), as well as corresponding age‐standardized rates (ASRs) for aforementioned indicies. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Nordpred age‐period‐cohort model were used to describe temporal trend changes and predict future disease burden.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the ASR of OA incidence increased from 472.53 per 100,000 to 509.84 per 100,000 people (EAPC: 0.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29–0.44); the ASR of OA prevalence increased from 5,880.58 per 100,000 to 6,330.06 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.35, 95% CI 0.28–0.42); the ASR of OA DALYs increased from 206.38 per 100,000 to 224.78 per 100,000 people (EAPC 0.40, 95% CI 0.32–0.48). The ASR of OA DALYs attributed to high BMI increased rapidly, especially in men and patients with hip OA. Projections suggest an increasing trend in the incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA from 2019 to 2044, with the prevalent cases and DALYs of OA in China expected to increase by approximately 1.5 times over the next 25 years.ConclusionThe disease burden of OA has increased in China over the past 30 years and is expected to continue rising over the next 25 years.