Clinical prognostic scoring system to aid decision-making in gastro-oesophageal cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background Accurate prediction of prognosis in gastro-oesophageal cancer remains challenging. The aim of this study was to develop a robust model for outcome prediction. Methods The study included 220 patients with gastric or oesophageal cancer newly diagnosed over a 2-year period. Patients were staged and underwent treatment following discussion at a multidisciplinary team (MDT) meeting. Clinical and investigative variables were collected, including performance and nutritional status, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Primary endpoints were death within 12 and 24 months. Results Overall median survival was 13 months. Advanced clinical stage (P < 0·001), reduced performance score (P < 0·001), weight loss exceeding 2·75 per cent per month (P = 0·026) and serum CRP concentration above 5 mg/l (P = 0·031) were identified as independent prognostic indicators in multivariable analysis. A prognostic score was constructed using these four variables to estimate a probability of death. Applying the model gave an area under the receiver–operator characteristic curve of 0·84 and 0·85 for prediction of death at 12 and 24 months respectively (both P < 0·001). Conclusion This model accurately estimated the probability of death within 12 and 24 months. This may aid the MDT decision-making process.