A Study on Short‐Term Wind Power Forecasting Method Based on Wind Speed Spatio‐Temporal Calibration and Power Self‐adaptive Correction

Abstract

Accurately predicting wind power is premise for the large‐scale integration of wind energy into the power grid and realizing reliable power grid scheduling and efficient wind farm operation. The spatial–temporal differences between the acquisition points of numerical weather prediction and wind farm sites should be considered because they significantly affect the accuracy of wind power output. Meanwhile, since there are different actual constraints on wind farm electrical networks and units, and the weather conditions may vary, there are no universal methods for identifying and correcting wind power output. To this end, this paper proposes a wind speed calibration model based on an Attention‐Bi‐LSTM network and a self‐adaptive recognition‐correction model based on SHAP‐CART classification for wind power output prediction. First, a spatial–temporal dataset is established by using real weather data from wind farm sites and data from the surrounding NWP points. Then, wind speed is accurately calibrated using the Attention‐Bi‐LSTM model. Next, considering the practical constraints on wind farm electrical networks and units, the self‐adaptive recognition‐correction model based on SHAP‐CART classification is employed to effectively recognize and predict the operating states and power output of the units, thus improving the accuracy and stability of wind power output prediction. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method is verified by using a wind farm in Eastern China as an example and analyzing the prediction results in various approaches. © 2023 Institute of Electrical Engineer of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.