Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: A time‐dependent weighted least squares with regularization constraint

Abstract

AbstractParameter instability and model uncertainty are two key problems affecting forecasting outcomes. In this paper, we propose a time‐dependent weighted least squares with ridge constraint (TWLS‐Ridge) to solve the above two problems in the forecasting procedure. The new TWLS‐Ridge approach is applied to the heterogenous autoregressive realized volatility model and its various extensions. The empirical results suggest that TWLS‐Ridge produces more accurate volatility forecasts than several alternative models dealing with parameter instability and model uncertainty. The superior performance of TWLS‐Ridge is robust under different forecast horizons, evaluation periods, and loss functions. An investor with mean–variance preference can improve utility using TWLS‐Ridge forecasts of oil volatility instead of ordinary least squares model forecasts.