The HCR-20 and violence risk assessment – will a peak of inflated expectations turn to a trough of disillusionment?

Abstract

SummaryThe HCR-20 has taken on a life of its own. In forensic services it has been elevated from helpful aide-mémoire into a prophetic tool worthy of Nostradamus himself. Almost every outcome is interpreted through it. Despite the evidence of its limited utility, the difficulties of predicting rare events, the narrative fallacies and other heuristic biases it creates, and the massive opportunity costs it entails, commissioners and services alike mandate its use. Yet in routine practice the problems are not acknowledged, multiple conflicts of interest lie unobserved and other opportunities are neglected.