Assessing the risks and uncertainties of regional crop potential under a changing climate in Finland

Abstract

Results are presented of a modelling study to estimate the regional suitability and potential productivity of selected crops in Finland under a changing climate. Model simulations were conducted across a regular 10 km grid over Finland for various cultivars of the following crops: spring wheat, barley, oats, potato and maize, and for two nematode pests and a fungal disease of potato. Models were run for both the present-day (1961-1990) climate and scenarios of future climate. Results are presented as maps. The main findings of the study are: (1) A warming of the climate induces shifts in the northern limit of cereal suitability of some 100-150 km per °C. (2) Changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration by 2050 are estimated to enhance average grain yields of present-day barley cultivars in all regions. (3) Under projected warming, the potential distribution of nematode species expands northwards and additional generations of some species are likely. The risk of late blight occurrence increases in all regions. (4) By 2050 grain maize could be cultivated reliably in favourable regions of southern Finland, and satisfactory yields obtained. (5) Uncertainties surround all estimates, including uncertainties in projections of future climate, model errors and assumptions and observational errors.